Sporting Gijon 2–0 Cadiz: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cadiz

Víctor Campuzano 90+3' (pen)

Gaspar Campos 27'

11/2/2024

Segunda División · Round 13Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sporting Gijon50%

×Draw26%

Cadiz24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchCadiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.96

Sporting Gijon

1.51

Cadiz

0.96

Sporting Gijon creates 57% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.44

creates per match

0.85

1.06

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Cadiz

0.85

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.06

Cadiz

1.58

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.06on par

Cadiz+0.04on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Cadiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

76%

Sporting Gijon or Cadiz

74%

Draw or Cadiz

50%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

25%

Cadiz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

78%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

44%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

19%

Cadiz 1+ goals

62%

Cadiz 2+ goals

25%

Cadiz 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

68%

Cadiz (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.06 · 8 matches

Cadiz away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.44 + Cadiz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Cadiz attack 0.85 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

50%

level

26%

Cadiz scores more

24%

Sporting Gijon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Pablo García

Sporting Gijon · D

7.5

Match Events

27'

Gaspar Campos↳ Pablo García

29'

Víctor Chust

46'

Nacho Martín← César Gelabert

62'

Javi Ontiveros← Iza Carcelén

70'

Dani Queipo← Gaspar Campos

70'

Víctor Campuzano← J. Otero

72'

Roger← Chris Ramos

73'

Diego Sanchez

74'

Jonathan Dubasin

78'

José de la Rosa← José Matos

78'

G. Escalante← B. Ocampo

79'

Pablo García

89'

J. Caicedo← Jonathan Dubasin

90+3'

Víctor CampuzanoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingCadiz

Overview

40%Possession60%

4Total Shots7

2Corners5

11Fouls10

Shots

4Total Shots7

2On Target0

2Off Target5

0Blocked2

3Inside Box4

1Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

326Total Passes479

245Accurate Passes380

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 2–0 Cadiz

Sporting Gijon beat Cadiz 2-0 in Segunda División on November 2, 2024.

Goals: Gaspar Campos (27'), Víctor Campuzano (90+3' pen).

Cadiz controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Molinón in Gijón.

Sporting Gijon vs Cadiz — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 2–0 Cadiz