Sporting Gijon 1–0 Cadiz: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cadiz

Álvaro Vázquez 54'

2/21/2020

Segunda División · Round 29Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sporting Gijon50%

×Draw26%

Cadiz24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchCadiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.96

Sporting Gijon

1.51

Cadiz

0.96

Sporting Gijon creates 57% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.44

creates per match

0.85

1.06

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.44

Cadiz

0.85

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.06

Cadiz

1.58

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.06on par

Cadiz+0.04on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Cadiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

76%

Sporting Gijon or Cadiz

74%

Draw or Cadiz

50%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

25%

Cadiz wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

78%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

44%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

19%

Cadiz 1+ goals

62%

Cadiz 2+ goals

25%

Cadiz 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

68%

Cadiz (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.06 · 8 matches

Cadiz away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.44 + Cadiz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Cadiz attack 0.85 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

50%

level

26%

Cadiz scores more

24%

Sporting Gijon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Álex

Cadiz · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

Juan Cala

41'

Bogdan Milovanov

52'

Isaac Carcelén

54'

Álvaro Vázquez↳ Murilo

56'

Alejo← Jon Garrido

57'

A. Lozano← Nano

63'

Rafael Jimenez Jarque

65'

José Mari

67'

José Jurado← Álvaro Giménez

73'

Javi Fuego← Pedro Díaz

75'

Álex

76'

Javi Fuego

76'

José Jurado

79'

Borja López← B. Milovanov

85'

Aitor García← Manu García

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingCadiz

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots16

4Corners10

14Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots16

2On Target3

5Off Target7

6Blocked6

7Inside Box14

6Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

431Total Passes341

334Accurate Passes237

77%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0