Cadiz 3–2 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Cadiz

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Gijon

I. Tabatadze 72' (pen)

B. Ocampo 53'

A. Pascual 11'

G. Campos 90'

J. Dubasin 82' (pen)

1/9/2026

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cadiz38%

×Draw27%

Sporting Gijon36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.26

Cadiz

1.31

Sporting Gijon

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.10

creates per match

1.14

1.39

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Cadiz

1.10

Sporting Gijon

1.14

allows per match

Cadiz

1.39

Sporting Gijon

1.52

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Cadiz-0.53scores less

Sporting Gijon-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

64%

Cadiz or Sporting Gijon

73%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

62%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

17%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

73%

Cadiz 2+ goals

38%

Cadiz 3+ goals

14%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

72%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

36%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

52%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 1.10 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sporting Gijon attack 1.14 + Cadiz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cadiz scores more

38%

level

27%

Sporting Gijon scores more

36%

Cadiz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Pascual

Cadiz · F

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Jonathan Dubasin

11'

A. Pascual↳ J. Moreno

44'

Moussa Diakité

53'

B. Ocampo↳ M. Climent

64'

Brian Ocampo

64'

I. Tabatadze← J. de la Rosa

64'

A. Cordero← B. Ocampo

66'

D. Queipo← J. Bernal

72'

I. TabatadzePenalty

75'

A. Fernandez← M. Diakite

75'

Y. Diarra← A. Pascual

81'

Sergio Ortuño

82'

J. DubasinPenalty

83'

P. Garcia← Nacho Martin

83'

G. Campos← J. Dubasin

83'

A. Coundoul← D. Sanchez

83'

M. Rodriguez← A. Corredera

87'

J. Diaz Peregrina← I. Carcelen

90+6'

Iuri Tabatadze

90'

G. Campos↳ J. Otero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizSporting

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots26

5Corners15

7Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots26

5On Target10

3Off Target9

2Blocked7

7Inside Box19

3Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

297Total Passes469

230Accurate Passes401

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2