Sporting Gijón II 5–1 Real Oviedo II

Sporting Gijón II

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Real Oviedo II

Álex Oyón 77' (pen)

Diego Tejón 65'

Dani Queipo 29'

Manuel Pozo 16', 1'

René Pérez 90+1'

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sporting Gijón II46%

×Draw25%

Real Oviedo II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchReal Oviedo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.21

Sporting Gijón II

1.58

Real Oviedo II

1.21

Sporting Gijón II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 36 away

2.42

creates per match

1.89

0.54

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

2.42

Real Oviedo II

1.89

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

0.54

Real Oviedo II

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Real Oviedo II →

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

71%

Sporting Gijón II or Real Oviedo II

75%

Draw or Real Oviedo II

54%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

23%

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

79%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

47%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

21%

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

70%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

34%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

61%

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 2.42 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.58

Real Oviedo II attack 1.89 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

46%

level

25%

Real Oviedo II scores more

29%

Sporting Gijón II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Manuel Pozo

16'

Manuel Pozo

29'

Dani Queipo

46'

Marc Alegre← Lucas Laso

46'

Jesús Ruiz← Álvaro Fernández

46'

Isaac Sánchez← Eloy

46'

Joselu Guerra← Javi Moreno

62'

Diego Tejón← Álvaro Santamaría

62'

Álex Oyón← Manuel Pozo

65'

Diego Tejón

67'

Vander← Álex Suárez

71'

Marcos Trabanco← Enol Coto

71'

Juan Aspra← Jorge Montes

77'

Álex OyónPenalty

84'

Nacho Martín← Lucas Suárez

90+1'

René Pérez

Sporting

Real

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Pozo

Manager: Sergio Sánchez

62'▲Diego Tejón←▼Álvaro Santamaría

62'▲Álex Oyón←▼Manuel Pozo

71'▲Marcos Trabanco←▼Enol Coto

71'▲Juan Aspra←▼Jorge Montes

84'▲Nacho Martín←▼Lucas Suárez

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

TejónOyónTrabancoAspraMartín

Manager: Jaime Álvarez

46'▲Marc Alegre←▼Lucas Laso

46'▲Jesús Ruiz←▼Álvaro Fernández

46'▲Isaac Sánchez←▼Eloy

46'▲Joselu Guerra←▼Javi Moreno

67'▲Vander←▼Álex Suárez

Real Oviedo II substitutes

AlegreRuizSánchezGuerraVander