Real Oviedo II 0–0 Sporting Gijón II

Real Oviedo II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gijón II

10/6/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Real Oviedo II51%

×Draw25%

Sporting Gijón II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Oviedo IIExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.06

Real Oviedo II

1.63

Sporting Gijón II

1.06

Real Oviedo II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 86 away

2.47

creates per match

1.41

0.72

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Real Oviedo II

2.47

Sporting Gijón II

1.41

allows per match

Real Oviedo II

0.72

Sporting Gijón II

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Sporting Gijón II →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw

75%

Real Oviedo II or Sporting Gijón II

75%

Draw or Sporting Gijón II

49%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

27%

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

80%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

48%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

22%

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

65%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

29%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

67%

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 2.47 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Real Oviedo II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more

51%

level

25%

Sporting Gijón II scores more

25%

Real Oviedo II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Yosmel Zayas← Marcos Fernández

58'

Rubén Valdera← Diego Tejón

63'

Adri Fernández← Marcos Lopes

63'

Joaquín Delgado← Santi Miguélez

72'

J. Mancha← Daniel Sáez

72'

E. Lozano← A. Coundoul

74'

L. Gueye← Castri

80'

Aarón Quintana← T. Fuentes

Real

Sporting

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Aguirre

58'▲Rubén Valdera←▼Diego Tejón

63'▲Adri Fernández←▼Marcos Lopes

63'▲Joaquín Delgado←▼Santi Miguélez

74'▲L. Gueye←▼Castri

Real Oviedo II substitutes

ValderaFernándezDelgadoGueye

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

46'▲Yosmel Zayas←▼Marcos Fernández

72'▲J. Mancha←▼Daniel Sáez

72'▲E. Lozano←▼A. Coundoul

80'▲Aarón Quintana←▼T. Fuentes

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

ZayasManchaLozanoQuintana