Real Oviedo II 1–0 Sporting Gijón II

Real Oviedo II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gijón II

Álex Zalaya 62' (OG)

3/7/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio El Requexón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Real Oviedo II44%

×Draw30%

Sporting Gijón II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Oviedo IIExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.83

Real Oviedo II

1.19

Sporting Gijón II

0.83

Real Oviedo II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

1.04

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Real Oviedo II

1.04

Sporting Gijón II

0.67

allows per match

Real Oviedo II

1.00

Sporting Gijón II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Oviedo II ↓

Sporting Gijón II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Real Oviedo II or draw

74%

Real Oviedo II or Sporting Gijón II

70%

Draw or Sporting Gijón II

56%

Winning margin

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

19%

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

70%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

33%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

12%

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

56%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

20%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

63%

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Oviedo II at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Oviedo II attack 1.04 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sporting Gijón II attack 0.67 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Oviedo II scores more

44%

level

30%

Sporting Gijón II scores more

26%

Real Oviedo II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Oviedo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

E. Aguado← Alberto Fuentes

62'

Álex ZalayaOwn goal

65'

Pedro Inglés← Raúl Prada

65'

César García← Álvaro Santamaría

71'

Steven← Javi Cueto

76'

Joselu Guerra← Álex Meléndez

76'

Iván Elena← Lucas Suárez

76'

Nacho Martín← Berto González

84'

Álex Oyón← Mateo Arellano

90'

D. Sanchez

Real

Sporting

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Emilio Cañedo

46'▲E. Aguado←▼Alberto Fuentes

65'▲Pedro Inglés←▼Raúl Prada

71'▲Steven←▼Javi Cueto

76'▲Joselu Guerra←▼Álex Meléndez

Real Oviedo II substitutes

AguadoInglésStevenGuerraLoreaSarrAmezPacoli

Manager: Sergio Sánchez

65'▲César García←▼Álvaro Santamaría

76'▲Iván Elena←▼Lucas Suárez

76'▲Nacho Martín←▼Berto González

84'▲Álex Oyón←▼Mateo Arellano

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

GarcíaElenaMartínOyónQueipoSánchezTejónCuervoAspra

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Oviedo II 1–0 Sporting Gijón II

Real Oviedo II beat Sporting Gijón II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 7, 2021.

Goals: Álex Zalaya (62' o.g.).

The match was played at Estadio El Requexón in Oviedo.

Real Oviedo II vs Sporting Gijón II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Oviedo II 1–0 Sporting Gijón II