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Sporting de Cabinda vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
11/5/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 7Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda22%
×Draw27%
Petro de Luanda52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Cabinda
0.84
Petro de Luanda
1.46

Petro de Luanda creates 74% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 109 away

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.07
Petro de Luanda
1.75

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.18
Petro de Luanda
0.61

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw
48%
Sporting de Cabinda or Petro de Luanda
73%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
78%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
7%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
57%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
21%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
5%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
77%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
43%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
30%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 67 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 1.07 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.84

Petro de Luanda attack 1.75 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more
22%
level
27%
Petro de Luanda scores more
52%

Petro de Luanda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting de Cabinda vs Petro de Luanda

Petro de Luanda beat Sporting de Cabinda 4-0 in Girabola on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Tafe in Cabinda.