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Petro de Luanda vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
2 – 0
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
4/20/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 22Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Petro de Luanda73%
×Draw19%
Sporting de Cabinda8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
1.97
Sporting de Cabinda
0.46

Petro de Luanda creates 328% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 68 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
2.01
Sporting de Cabinda
0.51

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.42
Sporting de Cabinda
1.94

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
92%
Petro de Luanda or Sporting de Cabinda
81%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
27%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
47%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
86%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
58%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
31%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
37%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
8%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
91%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.42 · 113 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.01 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.51 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
73%
level
19%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
8%

Petro de Luanda at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Petro de Luanda vs Sporting de Cabinda

Petro de Luanda beat Sporting de Cabinda 2-0 in Girabola on April 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Dinis in Luanda.