Sporting de Cabinda 0–3 Petro de Luanda

Sporting de Cabinda

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Petro de Luanda

4/9/2022

Girabola · Round 25Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda22%

×Draw27%

Petro de Luanda52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting de CabindaExpected goals in this matchPetro de Luanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.46

Sporting de Cabinda

0.84

Petro de Luanda

1.46

Petro de Luanda creates 74% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 109 away

1.07

creates per match

1.75

1.18

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda

1.07

Petro de Luanda

1.75

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda

1.18

Petro de Luanda

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Petro de Luanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw

48%

Sporting de Cabinda or Petro de Luanda

73%

Draw or Petro de Luanda

78%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+

7%

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals

57%

Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals

21%

Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals

5%

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

77%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

43%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)

30%

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 67 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 1.07 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.84

Petro de Luanda attack 1.75 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more

22%

level

27%

Petro de Luanda scores more

52%

Petro de Luanda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff