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Sporting CP B vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Segunda Liga 2018

Sporting CP B
Sporting CP B
Preview
15:00
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
9/13/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 6CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira
42%
Sporting CP B
model favours
42%24%34%
1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sporting CP B42%
×Draw24%
Lusitânia Lourosa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting CP B
1.59
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.40

Sporting CP B creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.39

allows per match

Sporting CP B
1.41
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.78

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw
66%
Sporting CP B or Lusitânia Lourosa
76%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
58%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+
21%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals
80%
Sporting CP B 2+ goals
47%
Sporting CP B 3+ goals
21%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
75%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
41%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)
55%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.39 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting CP B scores more
42%
level
24%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
34%

Sporting CP B at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sporting CP B
Balanced
Lusitânia Lourosa
Balanced
55%PossessionBiggest gap45%
82%Pass accuracy73%
10.2Shots9.8
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sporting CP BLusitânia Lourosa

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Sporting CP B
0
Draws
2
Lusitânia Lourosa
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 25%
0–14–01–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
B
DLLLL
Lourosa
LL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sporting CP B host Lusitânia Lourosa

September 13, 2026: Sporting CP B take on Lusitânia Lourosa in Segunda Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sporting CP B host Lusitânia Lourosa at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.