Sporting CP B 1–0 Lusitânia Lourosa: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lusitânia Lourosa

Manuel Mendonça 40'

2/7/2025

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 1CGD Stadium Aurélio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sporting CP B45%

×Draw28%

Lusitânia Lourosa28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchLusitânia Lourosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.98

Sporting CP B

1.33

Lusitânia Lourosa

0.98

Sporting CP B creates 36% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 46 away

1.47

creates per match

1.02

0.95

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.47

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.02

allows per match

Sporting CP B

0.95

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

72%

Sporting CP B or Lusitânia Lourosa

72%

Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa

55%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

21%

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

74%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

38%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

15%

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

62%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

26%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

62%

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 58 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.47 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.02 + Sporting CP B defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

45%

level

28%

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

28%

Sporting CP B at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

34'

40'

61'

61'

G. Zakpa← Diogo Pereira

71'

Henrique Arreiol← Luís Gomes

71'

Rodrigo Dias← Lucas Anjos

75'

Sérgio Ribeiro← A. Ebralidze

75'

Renato Soares← Tokinho Dória

79'

82'

Kauã Oliveira← Rafael Besugo

84'

Rui Faria← Tiago Cerveira

87'

Lucas Taibo← David Moreira

90+6'

Sporting

Lusitânia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: João Pereira

71'▲Henrique Arreiol←▼Luís Gomes

71'▲Rodrigo Dias←▼Lucas Anjos

82'▲Kauã Oliveira←▼Rafael Besugo

87'▲Lucas Taibo←▼David Moreira

Sporting CP B substitutes

ArreiolDiasOliveiraTaibo

Manager: Pedro Miguel

61'▲Arsénio←▼João Vasco

61'▲G. Zakpa←▼Diogo Pereira

75'▲Sérgio Ribeiro←▼A. Ebralidze

75'▲Renato Soares←▼Tokinho Dória

84'▲Rui Faria←▼Tiago Cerveira

Lusitânia Lourosa substitutes

ArsénioZakpaRibeiroSoaresFaria