Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats

Lusitânia Lourosa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sporting CP B

Bruno Faria 36'

D. Collard 4'

Afonso Moreira 71'

4/5/2025

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 8Estádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa49%

×Draw26%

Sporting CP B25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lusitânia LourosaExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.01

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.52

Sporting CP B

1.01

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 58 away

1.78

creates per match

1.14

0.89

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.78

Sporting CP B

1.14

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa

0.89

Sporting CP B

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw

75%

Lusitânia Lourosa or Sporting CP B

74%

Draw or Sporting CP B

51%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

25%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

78%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

45%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

20%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

64%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

27%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

66%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.78 + Sporting CP B defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sporting CP B attack 1.14 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

49%

level

26%

Sporting CP B scores more

25%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

29'

36'

45+1'

46'

Rafael Besugo← Alexandre Brito

46'

Lucas Anjos← Lucas Taibo

55'

Gabriel Silva← José Silva

55'

Kauã Oliveira← Luís Gomes

59'

Arsénio← Sérgio Ribeiro

71'

Afonso Moreira

73'

Marcos Valente← Renato Soares

73'

Miguel Teixeira← Diogo Pereira

82'

Flávio Gonçalves← Mauro Couto

87'

90'

90+2'

90+12'

90'

Tokinho Dória← G. Zakpa

Lusitânia

Sporting

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pedro Miguel

59'▲Arsénio←▼Sérgio Ribeiro

73'▲Marcos Valente←▼Renato Soares

73'▲Miguel Teixeira←▼Diogo Pereira

90'▲Tokinho Dória←▼G. Zakpa

Lusitânia Lourosa substitutes

ArsénioValenteTeixeiraDória

Manager: João Gião

46'▲Rafael Besugo←▼Alexandre Brito

46'▲Lucas Anjos←▼Lucas Taibo

55'▲Gabriel Silva←▼José Silva

55'▲Kauã Oliveira←▼Luís Gomes

82'▲Flávio Gonçalves←▼Mauro Couto

Sporting CP B substitutes

BesugoAnjosSilvaOliveiraGonçalves

Match Recap: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Sporting CP B

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Sporting CP B 2-1 in Liga 3 on April 5, 2025.

Goals: D. Collard (4'), Bruno Faria (36'), Afonso Moreira (71').

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Sporting CP B — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Sporting CP B