Sporting CP B 4–0 Lusitânia Lourosa: Result & Stats

Sporting CP B

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lusitânia Lourosa

G. Silva 66'

J. Silva 54'

R. Nel 45'

F. Goncalves 41'

10/25/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 8CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sporting CP B42%

×Draw24%

Lusitânia Lourosa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CP BExpected goals in this matchLusitânia Lourosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.40

Sporting CP B

1.59

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.40

Sporting CP B creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 18 away

1.41

creates per match

1.39

1.41

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Sporting CP B

1.41

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.39

allows per match

Sporting CP B

1.41

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting CP B ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sporting CP B or draw

66%

Sporting CP B or Lusitânia Lourosa

76%

Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa

58%

Winning margin

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

21%

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

80%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

47%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

21%

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

75%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

41%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

55%

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting CP B at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting CP B attack 1.41 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.39 + Sporting CP B defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting CP B scores more

42%

level

24%

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

34%

Sporting CP B at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sporting CP B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

22'

25'

26'

26'

27'

41'

F. Goncalves↳ R. Dias

45+4'

Rafael Nel

45'

R. Nel↳ J. Silva

46'

R. Besugo← F. Goncalves

46'

G. Silva← R. Nel

46'

Silverio← Arsenio

46'

I. Alhassan← Tiago Dias

54'

J. Silva↳ P. Cardoso

60'

Rafael Pontelo← D. Moreira

60'

M. Couto← S. Justo

61'

Fabinho← M. Teixeira

66'

G. Silva↳ M. Mendonca

68'

D. Costa← J. Silva

77'

Luís Rocha

79'

G. Braga← T. Mesquita

83'

Gabriel Silva

86'

Daniel Costa

90+3'

Rafael Besugo

Statistics

SportingLusitânia

Discipline

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards2

Segunda Liga: Sporting CP B 4–0 Lusitânia Lourosa

Sporting CP B beat Lusitânia Lourosa 4-0 in Segunda Liga on October 25, 2025.

Goals: F. Goncalves (41'), R. Nel (45'), J. Silva (54'), G. Silva (66').

The match was played at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira in Alcochete.

Sporting CP B vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Segunda Liga: Sporting CP B 4–0 Lusitânia Lourosa