Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sportfreunde Siegen vs Sportfreunde Lotte — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
S. Gucciardo 90+5' (OG)
M. Scheld 63' (pen)
10/29/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 12Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen36%
×Draw24%
Sportfreunde Lotte40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.52
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.72
Sportfreunde Lotte
2.00

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen
1.23
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.32

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw
60%
Sportfreunde Siegen or Sportfreunde Lotte
76%
Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte
64%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
17%
Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
78%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
45%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
20%
Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
80%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
48%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
47%
Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.72 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.00 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
36%
level
24%
Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
40%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
M. ScheldPenalty
90+5'
S. GucciardoOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sportfreunde Siegen 2 – 0 Sportfreunde Lotte

Sportfreunde Siegen beat Sportfreunde Lotte 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 29, 2023.

Goals: M. Scheld (63' pen), S. Gucciardo (90+5' o.g.).

The match was played at Leimbachstadion in Siegen.