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Sportfreunde Lotte vs Sportfreunde Siegen — League #87 2026

Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
L. Hiepen 83'
L. Demaj 5' (pen)
P. Besong 13'
3/7/2026League #87League #87 · West - 25Stadion am Lotter Kreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sportfreunde Lotte47%
×Draw25%
Sportfreunde Siegen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Lotte
1.61
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.19

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 35% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Lotte
1.89
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.17

allows per match

Sportfreunde Lotte
1.22
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.33

finishing

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Lotte ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Lotte or draw
72%
Sportfreunde Lotte or Sportfreunde Siegen
75%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
53%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
24%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
80%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
48%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
22%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
70%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
33%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
63%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Lotte at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 1.89 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.17 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
47%
level
25%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
28%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
L. DemajPenalty
13'
P. Besong
83'
L. Hiepen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Lotte vs Sportfreunde Siegen

Sportfreunde Lotte beat Sportfreunde Siegen 2-1 in League #87 on March 7, 2026.

Goals: L. Demaj (5' pen), P. Besong (13'), L. Hiepen (83').

The match was played at Stadion am Lotter Kreuz in Lotte.