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Sportfreunde Lotte vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
A. Kerasidis 60'
B. Nyuydine 56'
4/6/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 26Stadion am Lotter Kreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sportfreunde Lotte53%
×Draw22%
Sportfreunde Siegen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Lotte
2.03
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.33

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 53% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 72 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Lotte
2.62
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.79

allows per match

Sportfreunde Lotte
0.88
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.44

finishing

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Lotte ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Lotte or draw
75%
Sportfreunde Lotte or Sportfreunde Siegen
78%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
47%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
31%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
87%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
60%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
33%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
74%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
38%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
68%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Lotte at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.44 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.62 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.03

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 1.79 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
53%
level
22%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
25%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
B. Nyuydine
60'
A. Kerasidis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Lotte vs Sportfreunde Siegen

Sportfreunde Lotte beat Sportfreunde Siegen 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 6, 2023.

Goals: B. Nyuydine (56'), A. Kerasidis (60').

The match was played at Stadion am Lotter Kreuz in Lotte.