Sport Recife 1–0 Novorizontino: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Novorizontino

Pedro Perotti 52'

4/25/2026

Serie B · Round 6Ilha do Retiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Sport Recife39%

×Draw26%

Novorizontino35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.26

Sport Recife

1.36

Novorizontino

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.48

creates per match

1.22

1.30

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.48

Novorizontino

1.22

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.30

Novorizontino

1.25

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Sport Recife-0.21scores less

Novorizontino-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

65%

Sport Recife or Novorizontino

74%

Draw or Novorizontino

61%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

18%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

74%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

39%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

16%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

72%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

36%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

53%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.48 + Novorizontino defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Novorizontino attack 1.22 + Sport Recife defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sport Recife scores more

39%

level

26%

Novorizontino scores more

35%

Sport Recife at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Pedro Perotti

Sport Recife · F

8.2

Match Events

16'

Tavinho

46'

de Pena Carlos← Clayson

46'

Iury Castilho← Ze Gabriel

46'

Vinicius Paiva← Tavinho

52'

Pedro Perotti↳ de Pena Carlos

55'

Juninho

59'

Augusto← Madson

60'

Romulo← Juninho

60'

Kauan Alemao← Ivan Alvarino

63'

Carlos De Pena

67'

Patrick← Habraao

75'

Helio Borges← Diego Galo

77'

Yago Felipe← Biel Fonseca

81'

81'

90+6'

90+5'

90+1'

90+6'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportNovorizontino

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots10

1.50Expected Goals (xG)0.65

3Corners5

13Fouls21

Shots

10Total Shots10

5On Target4

4Off Target6

1Blocked1

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

402Total Passes302

338Accurate Passes239

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

-0.25Goals Prevented-0.25

Discipline

13Fouls21

4Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Novorizontino

Sport Recife beat Novorizontino 1-0 in Serie B on April 25, 2026.

Goals: Pedro Perotti (52').

Sport Recife controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ilha do Retiro in Recife.

Sport Recife vs Novorizontino — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Novorizontino