Sport Recife 1–0 Novorizontino: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Novorizontino

Felipinho 70'

8/5/2023

Serie B · Round 22Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Sport Recife39%

×Draw26%

Novorizontino35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.26

Sport Recife

1.36

Novorizontino

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.48

creates per match

1.22

1.30

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.48

Novorizontino

1.22

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.30

Novorizontino

1.25

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Sport Recife-0.21scores less

Novorizontino-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

65%

Sport Recife or Novorizontino

74%

Draw or Novorizontino

61%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

18%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

74%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

39%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

16%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

72%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

36%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

53%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.30 · 11 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.48 + Novorizontino defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Novorizontino attack 1.22 + Sport Recife defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sport Recife scores more

39%

level

26%

Novorizontino scores more

35%

Sport Recife at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

Sabino

Sport Recife · D

7.7

Match Events

40'

Ewerthon← Eduardo

41'

Ronaldo

45'

Jordi

60'

Fabio Matheus

63'

F. Labandeira← Edinho

63'

Fabinho← Fábio Matheus

68'

Felipe Marques← Aylon

68'

Jenison← Ronaldo

70'

Felipinho↳ F. Labandeira

75'

Romulo← Marlon

75'

Rodolfo← Douglas Baggio

80'

Zé Mateus← Guilherme Matos

83'

Victor Gabriel← Felipinho

83'

Felipe Ferreira← A. Ruiz

90+4'

Ronaldo Henrique

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportNovorizontino

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots15

0.63Expected Goals (xG)0.63

4Corners12

10Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots15

6On Target3

4Off Target7

1Blocked5

5Inside Box8

6Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

283Total Passes402

192Accurate Passes306

68%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1