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Novorizontino vs Sport Recife — Serie B 2026

Novorizontino
Novorizontino
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sport Recife
Sport Recife
10/11/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 31Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Novorizontino46%
×Draw27%
Sport Recife28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino
1.41
Sport Recife
1.03

Novorizontino creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Novorizontino
1.53
Sport Recife
1.07

allows per match

Novorizontino
0.99
Sport Recife
1.28

finishing

Novorizontino-0.13scores less
Sport Recife+0.13scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Sport Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw
72%
Novorizontino or Sport Recife
73%
Draw or Sport Recife
54%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+
22%
Sport Recife wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals
76%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
41%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
17%
Sport Recife 1+ goals
64%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
28%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)
62%
Sport Recife (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.99 · 15 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.53 + Sport Recife defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sport Recife attack 1.07 + Novorizontino defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Novorizontino scores more
46%
level
27%
Sport Recife scores more
28%

Novorizontino at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Novorizontino 1–3 Sport Recife

Sport Recife beat Novorizontino 3-1 in Serie B on October 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte, São Paulo.