Sport Recife 1–2 Ituano: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sport Recife

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ituano

Ronaldo 65'

Ewerthon 6' (OG)

Matheus Cadorini 1'

8/26/2023

Serie B · Round 25Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sport Recife55%

×Draw25%

Ituano20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchItuano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.88

Sport Recife

1.65

Ituano

0.88

Sport Recife creates 88% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 57 away

1.80

creates per match

0.96

0.80

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.80

Ituano

0.96

allows per match

Sport Recife

0.80

Ituano

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Ituano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Ituano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

80%

Sport Recife or Ituano

75%

Draw or Ituano

45%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

30%

Ituano wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

81%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

49%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

23%

Ituano 1+ goals

59%

Ituano 2+ goals

22%

Ituano 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

74%

Ituano (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 71 matches

Ituano away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.80 + Ituano defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ituano attack 0.96 + Sport Recife defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sport Recife scores more

55%

level

25%

Ituano scores more

20%

Sport Recife at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Ronaldo

Sport Recife · M

7.6

Match Events

1'

Matheus Cadorini↳ Hélio Borges

6'

EwerthonOwn goal

44'

Iury

46'

Peglow← A. Ruiz

46'

R. Rosales← Ewerthon

60'

Diego Quirino← Matheus Cadorini

65'

Ronaldo

66'

Felipe Ferreira← Fábio Matheus

66'

Edinho← F. Labandeira

69'

Vinícius Balieiro← Wesley Pomba

69'

Felipe Saraiva← Yann Rolim

69'

Emerson Urso← Hélio Borges

76'

Rafael Pereira← Marcel Scalese

80'

K. R. Leal Silva

84'

Michel← Jorginho

87'

87'

90+3'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportItuano

Overview

67%Possession33%

18Total Shots3

11Corners3

10Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots3

3On Target2

9Off Target1

6Blocked0

8Inside Box2

10Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

515Total Passes276

422Accurate Passes176

82%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1