Ituano 1–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ituano

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Recife

Vinícius Paiva 69'

5/15/2024

Serie B · Round 5Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ituano40%

×Draw31%

Sport Recife29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItuanoExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.89

Ituano

1.09

Sport Recife

0.89

Ituano creates 22% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 70 away

1.11

creates per match

0.89

0.88

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Ituano

1.11

Sport Recife

0.89

allows per match

Ituano

0.88

Sport Recife

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituano+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ituano or draw

71%

Ituano or Sport Recife

69%

Draw or Sport Recife

60%

Winning margin

Ituano wins by 2+

16%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ituano 1+ goals

66%

Ituano 2+ goals

30%

Ituano 3+ goals

10%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

59%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

22%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ituano (draw refunded)

58%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano attack 1.11 + Sport Recife defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sport Recife attack 0.89 + Ituano defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ituano scores more

40%

level

31%

Sport Recife scores more

29%

Ituano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ituano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Lucas Lima

Sport Recife · M

8.0

Match Events

29'

Eduardo

46'

Vitão← Wálber

46'

Romarinho← C. Ortíz

63'

A. Ruiz← Felipe

63'

Dalbert← Felipinho

69'

Vinícius Paiva↳ Thonny Anderson

73'

Léo Oliveira

74'

Eduardo Person

74'

José Aldo← Eduardo Person

80'

Léo Duarte← Léo Oliveira

80'

Vinícius Faria← Chrystian Barletta

82'

Marlinho← Leozinho

82'

Marcel Scalese← Eduardo Diniz

83'

Miqueias

90+5'

Léo Duarte

90+1'

Alan Ruiz

90+3'

Pablo Dyego← F. Domínguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ItuanoSport

Overview

30%Possession70%

9Total Shots19

2Corners9

9Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots19

2On Target2

3Off Target8

4Blocked9

4Inside Box13

5Outside Box6

Passing

30%Possession70%

222Total Passes519

158Accurate Passes456

71%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

5Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1