Ituano 1–1 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ituano

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sport Recife

Rafael Carvalheira 31'

Vágner Love 20'

5/14/2023

Serie B · Round 6Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ituano40%

×Draw31%

Sport Recife29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItuanoExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.89

Ituano

1.09

Sport Recife

0.89

Ituano creates 22% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 70 away

1.11

creates per match

0.89

0.88

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Ituano

1.11

Sport Recife

0.89

allows per match

Ituano

0.88

Sport Recife

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituano+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ituano or draw

71%

Ituano or Sport Recife

69%

Draw or Sport Recife

60%

Winning margin

Ituano wins by 2+

16%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ituano 1+ goals

66%

Ituano 2+ goals

30%

Ituano 3+ goals

10%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

59%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

22%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ituano (draw refunded)

58%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano attack 1.11 + Sport Recife defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sport Recife attack 0.89 + Ituano defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ituano scores more

40%

level

31%

Sport Recife scores more

29%

Ituano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ituano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Vágner Love

Sport Recife · F

8.2

Match Events

20'

Rafael Carvalheira← Eduardo Person

20'

31'

36'

37'

46'

Paulo Victor← Hélio Borges

60'

Luciano Juba

61'

Jorginho

62'

Yann Rolim← Bruno Xavier

63'

Wanderson← Edinho

74'

Fabrício Daniel← Jorginho

74'

Pedro Martins← Ronaldo

78'

Jonathan Silva← Mário Sérgio

78'

Brayan← Diego Quirino

83'

Felipinho← Luciano Juba

83'

Fábio Matheus← Fabinho

90'

Carlão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ItuanoSport

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots13

3Corners3

18Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target4

7Off Target4

2Blocked5

6Inside Box6

8Outside Box7

Passing

53%Possession47%

470Total Passes418

364Accurate Passes316

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1