Sport Recife 1–1 Goias: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sport Recife

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Goias

Zé Roberto 23' (pen)

Edu 11'

9/19/2024

Serie B · Round 27Itaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sport Recife44%

×Draw24%

Goias31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchGoias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.34

Sport Recife

1.64

Goias

1.34

Sport Recife creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.71

creates per match

1.27

1.41

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.71

Goias

1.27

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.41

Goias

1.56

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Sport Recife-0.33scores less

Goias-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Goias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

69%

Sport Recife or Goias

76%

Draw or Goias

56%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

23%

Goias wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

81%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

49%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

23%

Goias 1+ goals

74%

Goias 2+ goals

39%

Goias 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

59%

Goias (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.41 · 8 matches

Goias away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.56 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.71 + Goias defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

Goias attack 1.27 + Sport Recife defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Recife scores more

44%

level

24%

Goias scores more

31%

Sport Recife at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Tadeu

Goias · G

7.9

Match Events

-5'

David Braz

-5'

Thiago Rodrigues

11'

Edu↳ Messias

17'

Pedro Vilhena← F. Domínguez

23'

Douglas Silva

23'

Zé RobertoPenalty

31'

43'

46'

54'

56'

60'

Gustavo Coutinho← Zé Roberto

60'

Luiz Henrique← Welliton

61'

Wellington Silva← Chrystian Barletta

61'

Cristiano← Degê

64'

Messias

66'

Gustavo Coutinho

67'

Nathan Melo← Edson Felipe

68'

Paulo Baya← J. Vásquez

75'

Thiago Galhardo← Edu

79'

Juninho

81'

Diego Caito

82'

Lenny Lobato← Pedro Vilhena

90+7'

Felipinho

90+6'

Thiago Galhardo

90+5'

Lucas Ribeiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportGoias

Overview

55%Possession45%

20Total Shots7

11Corners5

16Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots7

6On Target2

6Off Target3

8Blocked2

11Inside Box5

9Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

350Total Passes293

266Accurate Passes213

76%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls13

6Yellow Cards8

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Goias

Sport Recife and Goias drew 1-1 in Serie B on September 19, 2024.

Goals: Edu (11'), Zé Roberto (23' pen).

Sport Recife controlled possession (55%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Pernambuco.

Sport Recife vs Goias — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Goias