Goias 3–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

Goias

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Recife

Luiz Henrique 90+6'

Marcão 69'

Welliton 5'

6/1/2024

Serie B · Round 8Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Goias45%

×Draw29%

Sport Recife26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoiasExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.86

Goias

1.25

Sport Recife

0.86

Goias creates 45% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 75 away

1.46

creates per match

0.83

0.89

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Goias

1.46

Sport Recife

0.83

allows per match

Goias

0.89

Sport Recife

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goias+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Goias or draw

74%

Goias or Sport Recife

71%

Draw or Sport Recife

55%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+

20%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals

71%

Goias 2+ goals

36%

Goias 3+ goals

13%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

58%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

21%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)

64%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.89 · 84 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.46 + Sport Recife defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sport Recife attack 0.83 + Goias defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Goias scores more

45%

level

29%

Sport Recife scores more

26%

Goias at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Lucas Lima

Sport Recife · M

8.2

Match Events

5'

Welliton

26'

C. Ortiz

31'

Rafael Thyere

31'

Marcio Zanardi

34'

Juninho

37'

Lucas Ribeiro

41'

Dalbert

46'

Vinícius Faria← C. Ortíz

54'

Diego

61'

Rafael Gava← Juninho

61'

Pedrinho← Paulo Baya

65'

Fabinho← F. Domínguez

69'

Marcão

80'

Ian Luccas← Thiago Galhardo

80'

Á. Rodríguez← Welliton

86'

Pablo Dyego← Dalbert

88'

Marcao Silva

90+2'

Wellington← Marcão

90+6'

Luiz Henrique↳ Dieguinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoiasSport

Overview

38%Possession62%

12Total Shots17

9Corners8

12Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots17

5On Target3

3Off Target9

4Blocked5

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box9

Passing

38%Possession62%

309Total Passes513

237Accurate Passes451

77%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1