Goias 1–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie A

Goias

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Recife

Fernandão 5'

12/26/2020

Serie A · Round 27Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Goias46%

×Draw28%

Sport Recife26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GoiasExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.93

Goias

1.35

Sport Recife

0.93

Goias creates 45% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 77 away

1.07

creates per match

0.65

1.21

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Goias

1.07

Sport Recife

0.65

allows per match

Goias

1.21

Sport Recife

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goias+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Goias or draw

74%

Goias or Sport Recife

72%

Draw or Sport Recife

54%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+

22%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals

74%

Goias 2+ goals

39%

Goias 3+ goals

15%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

61%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

24%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)

64%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 71 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.62 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.07 + Sport Recife defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sport Recife attack 0.65 + Goias defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Goias scores more

46%

level

28%

Sport Recife scores more

26%

Goias at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Tadeu

Goias · G

8.0

Match Events

5'

Fernandão↳ Shaylon

45'

Rafael Moura

46'

Betinho← Ronaldo

58'

Fernandão

64'

Vinicius← Fernandão

76'

Gustavo Blanco← Douglas Baggio

79'

Gustavo Blanco

81'

Raul Prata← Marquinhos

81'

Mikael← L. Mugni

82'

Raul Prata

86'

Miguel Ferreira← A. Cabral

88'

Sander← Junior Tavares

88'

Bruninho← Marcão

89'

Breno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GoiasSport

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots16

4Corners5

22Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots16

3On Target4

6Off Target6

1Blocked6

8Inside Box8

2Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

315Total Passes501

219Accurate Passes392

70%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

22Fouls18

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4