Sport Recife 2–2 Fluminense: Result & Stats

Sport Recife

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fluminense

Luan Candido 90'

Lucas Lima 73'

John Kennedy 83' (pen)

L. Acosta 64'

10/1/2025

Serie A · Round 26Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Sport Recife33%

×Draw28%

Fluminense39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchFluminense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.21

Sport Recife

1.10

Fluminense

1.21

Fluminense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 48 away

0.93

creates per match

0.99

1.42

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Sport Recife

0.93

Fluminense

0.99

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.42

Fluminense

1.28

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Sport Recife-0.04on par

Fluminense-0.05on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Fluminense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

61%

Sport Recife or Fluminense

72%

Draw or Fluminense

67%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

13%

Fluminense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

67%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

30%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

10%

Fluminense 1+ goals

70%

Fluminense 2+ goals

34%

Fluminense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

46%

Fluminense (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Fluminense away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.28 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.93 + Fluminense defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Fluminense attack 0.99 + Sport Recife defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sport Recife scores more

33%

level

28%

Fluminense scores more

39%

Fluminense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Lucas Lima

Sport Recife · M

8.2

Match Events

33'

Juan Ignacio Ramírez

45+3'

Ignácio

45+1'

Matheus MartinelliGoal cancelled

59'

Romarinho← Chrystian Barletta

59'

Pablo← I. Ramirez

63'

64'

67'

68'

70'

73'

76'

Y. Soteldo← A. Canobbio

76'

Lima← L. Acosta

76'

John Kennedy← G. Cano

80'

IgnácioPenalty confirmed

83'

John KennedyPenalty

86'

Leo Pereira← Matheusinho

87'

R. Atencio← Hyoran

88'

Otavio← Hercules

90'

Luan Candido

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportFluminense

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots11

1.13Expected Goals (xG)1.72

3Corners1

15Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target5

2Off Target4

6Blocked2

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

384Total Passes418

319Accurate Passes346

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.65Goals Prevented-0.65

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2