Fluminense 2–1 Sport Recife: Result & Stats

Fluminense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sport Recife

Everaldo 90'

K. Serna 60'

Pablo 24'

5/3/2025

Serie A · Round 7Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Fluminense52%

×Draw25%

Sport Recife23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FluminenseExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.94

Fluminense

1.56

Sport Recife

0.94

Fluminense creates 66% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 16 away

1.44

creates per match

1.01

0.86

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Fluminense

1.44

Sport Recife

1.01

allows per match

Fluminense

0.86

Sport Recife

1.69

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.51scores less than expected

finishing

Fluminense+0.05on par

Sport Recife-0.51scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw

77%

Fluminense or Sport Recife

75%

Draw or Sport Recife

48%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+

27%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals

79%

Fluminense 2+ goals

46%

Fluminense 3+ goals

21%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

61%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

24%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)

69%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.86 · 43 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.44 + Sport Recife defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sport Recife attack 1.01 + Fluminense defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fluminense scores more

52%

level

25%

Sport Recife scores more

23%

Fluminense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Arias

Fluminense · M

8.2

Match Events

24'

Pablo↳ Lucas Lima

46'

K. Serna← A. Canobbio

55'

Nonato← Hercules

55'

Lima← PH Ganso

60'

K. Serna↳ J. Arias

64'

Rodrigo Atencio

64'

Du Queiroz← Ze Lucas

65'

Lenny Lobato← R. Atencio

69'

R. Lezcano← Martinelli

73'

Jhon AriasPenalty cancelled

76'

Diogo Hereda

81'

Lucas Lima

85'

Carlos Alberto← Pablo

86'

Arthur Sousa← Chrystian Barletta

87'

90+1'

90+5'

90+4'

90+4'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FluminenseSport

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots11

1.92Expected Goals (xG)1.07

10Corners6

12Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots11

8On Target5

8Off Target2

4Blocked4

16Inside Box11

4Outside Box0

Passing

63%Possession37%

539Total Passes326

455Accurate Passes243

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

0.77Goals Prevented0.77

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards5

0Offsides6

Serie A: Fluminense 2–1 Sport Recife

Fluminense beat Sport Recife 2-1 in Serie A on May 3, 2025.

Goals: Pablo (24'), K. Serna (60'), Everaldo (90').

Fluminense controlled possession (63%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio do Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro.

Fluminense vs Sport Recife — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Fluminense 2–1 Sport Recife