Fluminense 1–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats

Fluminense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Recife

Patric 49' (OG)

1/16/2021

Serie A · Round 30Estádio Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Fluminense52%

×Draw25%

Sport Recife23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FluminenseExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.94

Fluminense

1.56

Sport Recife

0.94

Fluminense creates 66% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 16 away

1.44

creates per match

1.01

0.86

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Fluminense

1.44

Sport Recife

1.01

allows per match

Fluminense

0.86

Sport Recife

1.69

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.51scores less than expected

finishing

Fluminense+0.05on par

Sport Recife-0.51scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw

77%

Fluminense or Sport Recife

75%

Draw or Sport Recife

48%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+

27%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals

79%

Fluminense 2+ goals

46%

Fluminense 3+ goals

21%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

61%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

24%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)

69%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.86 · 43 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.44 + Sport Recife defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sport Recife attack 1.01 + Fluminense defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fluminense scores more

52%

level

25%

Sport Recife scores more

23%

Fluminense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Matheus Ferraz

Fluminense · D

7.7

Match Events

40'

Júnior Tavares

42'

Sander← Marquinhos

46'

Ewerton← Ronaldo

49'

PatricOwn goal

58'

Sander

69'

Caio Paulista← Luiz Henrique

76'

Fred

79'

Felippe Cardoso← Fred

79'

Ricardinho← Adryelson

79'

Hernane← Raul Prata

80'

Nenê← M. Araújo

88'

Húdson← Lucca

90+2'

Mikael← Dalberto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FluminenseSport

Overview

65%Possession35%

11Total Shots10

5Corners4

23Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots10

1On Target0

8Off Target7

2Blocked3

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

531Total Passes270

458Accurate Passes198

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

23Fouls18

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1