Sport Recife 1–5 Flamengo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sport Recife

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Flamengo

Pablo 15'

Douglas Telles 80'

Ayrton Lucas 71'

Bruno Henrique 63'

Juninho 61'

Luiz Araujo 41'

11/15/2025

Serie A · Round 12Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Sport Recife29%

×Draw27%

Flamengo44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.36

Sport Recife

1.04

Flamengo

1.36

Flamengo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

0.91

creates per match

1.40

1.33

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Sport Recife

0.91

Flamengo

1.40

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.33

Flamengo

1.18

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Sport Recife-0.14scores less

Flamengo+0.32scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

56%

Sport Recife or Flamengo

73%

Draw or Flamengo

71%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

11%

Flamengo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

65%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

28%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

9%

Flamengo 1+ goals

74%

Flamengo 2+ goals

39%

Flamengo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

39%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.91 + Flamengo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Flamengo attack 1.40 + Sport Recife defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Recife scores more

29%

level

27%

Flamengo scores more

44%

Flamengo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Ayrton Lucas

Flamengo · D

8.5

Match Events

9'

15'

27'

34'

37'

37'

40'

41'

Luiz Araujo↳ S. Niguez

42'

42'

44'

45+3'

46'

46'

56'

60'

61'

A. Gomes do Nascimento← Lucas Lima

61'

Juninho

63'

Bruno Henrique↳ Luiz Araujo

71'

Ayrton Lucas↳ Everton

77'

Riquelme← C. Rivera

77'

S. Oliveira← Leo Pereira

79'

Evertton Araujo← E. Pulgar

79'

Douglas Telles← Bruno Henrique

80'

Douglas Telles↳ Everton

86'

Riquelme Felipe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportFlamengo

Overview

25%Possession75%

7Total Shots36

0.41Expected Goals (xG)3.90

4Corners15

5Fouls5

Shots

7Total Shots36

2On Target14

2Off Target13

3Blocked9

5Inside Box21

2Outside Box15

Passing

25%Possession75%

194Total Passes574

133Accurate Passes517

69%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

-0.43Goals Prevented-0.43

Discipline

5Fouls5

5Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Flamengo

Flamengo beat Sport Recife 5-1 in Serie A on November 15, 2025.

Goals: Pablo (15'), Luiz Araujo (41'), Juninho (61'), Bruno Henrique (63'), Ayrton Lucas (71'), Douglas Telles (80').

Flamengo controlled possession (75%) and registered 36 shots to 7.

The match was played at Arena Pernambuco.

Sport Recife vs Flamengo — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Flamengo