Sport Recife 1–1 Flamengo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sport Recife

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Flamengo

Gustavo 51'

Michael 40'

12/3/2021

Serie A · Round 35Itaipava Arena Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Sport Recife29%

×Draw27%

Flamengo44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.35

Sport Recife

1.04

Flamengo

1.35

Flamengo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 41 away

0.91

creates per match

1.37

1.33

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Sport Recife

0.91

Flamengo

1.37

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.33

Flamengo

1.18

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Sport Recife-0.14scores less

Flamengo+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

56%

Sport Recife or Flamengo

73%

Draw or Flamengo

71%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

11%

Flamengo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

65%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

28%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

9%

Flamengo 1+ goals

74%

Flamengo 2+ goals

39%

Flamengo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

40%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.18 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.91 + Flamengo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Flamengo attack 1.37 + Sport Recife defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Recife scores more

29%

level

27%

Flamengo scores more

44%

Flamengo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Vitinho

Flamengo · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

Renê

13'

RenêCard upgrade

40'

Michael↳ Pedro

51'

Gustavo

57'

MichaelPenalty cancelled

58'

Hernanes

67'

Paulinho Moccelin← Hernanes

68'

Paulinho Moccelin

71'

Rodinei← Matheuzinho

72'

Kenedy← Vitinho

75'

Ramon← Renê

76'

João Gomes← Diego

83'

Ronaldo← Everton Felipe

83'

Bruno Viana← Thiago Maia

86'

Pedro

88'

S. Tréllez← Gustavo

88'

Hayner← Ewerton

90+4'

Bruno Viana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportFlamengo

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots22

6Corners6

13Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots22

9On Target7

4Off Target10

2Blocked5

7Inside Box12

8Outside Box10

Passing

48%Possession52%

399Total Passes423

340Accurate Passes369

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

Serie A: Sport Recife 1–1 Flamengo

Sport Recife and Flamengo drew 1-1 in Serie A on December 3, 2021.

Goals: Michael (40'), Gustavo (51').

Flamengo controlled possession (52%) and registered 22 shots to 15.

The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Pernambuco.

Sport Recife vs Flamengo — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Sport Recife 1–1 Flamengo