Sport Recife 0–3 Flamengo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sport Recife

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Flamengo

Pedro 90+6'

Bruno Henrique 19'

Gabriel Barbosa 4'

2/1/2021

Serie A · Round 33Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Sport Recife29%

×Draw27%

Flamengo44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.35

Sport Recife

1.04

Flamengo

1.35

Flamengo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 41 away

0.91

creates per match

1.37

1.33

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Sport Recife

0.91

Flamengo

1.37

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.33

Flamengo

1.18

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Sport Recife-0.14scores less

Flamengo+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

56%

Sport Recife or Flamengo

73%

Draw or Flamengo

71%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

11%

Flamengo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

65%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

28%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

9%

Flamengo 1+ goals

74%

Flamengo 2+ goals

39%

Flamengo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

40%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.18 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.91 + Flamengo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Flamengo attack 1.37 + Sport Recife defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Recife scores more

29%

level

27%

Flamengo scores more

44%

Flamengo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Éverton Ribeiro

Flamengo · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

Gabriel Barbosa↳ G. De Arrascaeta

19'

37'

51'

54'

57'

58'

Pepê← Gerson

62'

Hugo Souza← Diego Alves

68'

Hernane← Dalberto

68'

Bruninho← Ronaldo

77'

Vitinho← Gabriel Barbosa

77'

Pedro← Bruno Henrique

77'

Gomes← Diego

82'

Lucas Venuto← Ewerton

87'

Gustavo← Marquinhos

88'

Sander← Junior Tavares

90+6'

Pedro↳ Éverton Ribeiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportFlamengo

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots21

2Corners6

15Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots21

2On Target9

3Off Target8

3Blocked4

4Inside Box14

4Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

350Total Passes563

285Accurate Passes491

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls20

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1