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Sport Recife vs Cuiaba — Serie B 2026

Sport Recife
Sport Recife
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
Pedro Carmona 56'
Sander 13'
10/14/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 29Ilha do Retiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sport Recife40%
×Draw27%
Cuiaba32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Recife
1.30
Cuiaba
1.13

Sport Recife creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sport Recife
1.65
Cuiaba
0.86

allows per match

Sport Recife
1.40
Cuiaba
0.95

finishing

Sport Recife-0.21scores less
Cuiaba-0.19scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Cuiaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw
68%
Sport Recife or Cuiaba
73%
Draw or Cuiaba
60%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+
18%
Cuiaba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals
73%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
37%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
14%
Cuiaba 1+ goals
68%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
31%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)
56%
Cuiaba (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.40 · 9 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.65 + Cuiaba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cuiaba attack 0.86 + Sport Recife defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sport Recife scores more
40%
level
27%
Cuiaba scores more
32%

Sport Recife at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
MailsonSport RecifeSport Recife · G
8.7

Match Events

13'
Sander↳ Charles
36'
Marino
48'
Toty
51'
Alê
56'
Pedro Carmona
64'
Mateus Anderson← Felipe Marques
66'
Hyuri← Marquinho
72'
Jefinho← Gilmar
76'
Elton← Hernane
77'
Jean Patrick
82'
Alex Ruan← Jean Patrick
83'
Yago← Pedro Carmona

Possession

40%Sport

Shots

9Sport

Pass accuracy

47%Sport

Statistics

SportCuiaba
Overview
40%Possession60%
9Total Shots22
0Corners11
15Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots22
5On Target8
3Off Target7
1Blocked7
9Inside Box10
0Outside Box12
Passing
40%Possession60%
360Total Passes505
259Accurate Passes410
72%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
8Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls12
0Yellow Cards4
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Sport Recife vs Cuiaba

Sport Recife beat Cuiaba 2-0 in Serie B on October 14, 2019.

Goals: Sander (13'), Pedro Carmona (56').

Cuiaba controlled possession (60%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Ilha do Retiro in Recife.