Cuiaba 0–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cuiaba

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Recife

3/21/2026

Serie B · Round 1Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cuiaba46%

×Draw26%

Sport Recife28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuiabaExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Cuiaba

1.48

Sport Recife

1.10

Cuiaba creates 35% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.07

1.13

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Cuiaba

1.67

Sport Recife

1.07

allows per match

Cuiaba

1.13

Sport Recife

1.28

-1.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Cuiaba-1.11scores less

Sport Recife+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw

72%

Cuiaba or Sport Recife

74%

Draw or Sport Recife

54%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+

23%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals

77%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

43%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

19%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

67%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

30%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

62%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.13 · 9 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.67 + Sport Recife defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sport Recife attack 1.07 + Cuiaba defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cuiaba scores more

46%

level

26%

Sport Recife scores more

28%

Cuiaba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Thiago Couto

Sport Recife · G

7.9

Match Events

30'

45+2'

46'

55'

67'

Weverson← Lorenzo

72'

Micael← Ze Roberto

72'

Dede← Ze Lucas

78'

Nino Paraiba← Railan

78'

Mateus Santos← Vinicius Peixoto

81'

Lipao← Iury Castilho

81'

Clayson← Gustavo Maia

86'

Clayson

87'

de Pena Carlos← Yago Felipe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuiabaSport

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots10

1.27Expected Goals (xG)0.75

0Corners1

20Fouls21

Shots

13Total Shots10

4On Target1

6Off Target6

3Blocked3

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

361Total Passes504

288Accurate Passes429

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.68Goals Prevented0.68

Discipline

20Fouls21

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides4