Cuiaba 1–1 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cuiaba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Recife

Anderson Conceição 90+6'

Yago 48'

7/15/2019

Serie B · Round 10Estadio Presidente Eurico Gaspar Dutra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Cuiaba45%

×Draw30%

Sport Recife25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuiabaExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.82

Cuiaba

1.22

Sport Recife

0.82

Cuiaba creates 49% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 75 away

1.40

creates per match

0.83

0.82

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Cuiaba

1.40

Sport Recife

0.83

allows per match

Cuiaba

0.82

Sport Recife

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cuiaba+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw

75%

Cuiaba or Sport Recife

70%

Draw or Sport Recife

55%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+

20%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals

70%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

34%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

12%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

56%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

20%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

65%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.82 · 57 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.40 + Sport Recife defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sport Recife attack 0.83 + Cuiaba defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cuiaba scores more

45%

level

30%

Sport Recife scores more

25%

Cuiaba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Yago

Sport Recife · M

7.6

Match Events

24'

Rafael Thyere

38'

Paulinho

45+4'

Ronaldo← Charles

46'

Elton← Hernane

48'

Yago↳ Guilherme

55'

Caio Dantas← Rincon

60'

Toty← D. Escudero

66'

69'

72'

74'

79'

83'

90'

90+6'

Anderson Conceição↳ Jean Patrick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuiabaSport

Overview

49%Possession51%

19Total Shots6

15Corners1

23Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots6

5On Target1

6Off Target3

8Blocked2

11Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

335Total Passes369

249Accurate Passes287

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3