Sport Recife 0–4 Cruzeiro: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sport Recife

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Cruzeiro

Matheus Pereira 53', 45'

Kaio Jorge 18'

Igor Carius 8' (OG)

5/11/2025

Serie A · Round 8Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Sport Recife34%

×Draw28%

Cruzeiro38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.19

Sport Recife

1.12

Cruzeiro

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 43 away

0.93

creates per match

0.96

1.42

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Sport Recife

0.93

Cruzeiro

0.96

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.42

Cruzeiro

1.31

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Sport Recife-0.04on par

Cruzeiro+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Cruzeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

62%

Sport Recife or Cruzeiro

72%

Draw or Cruzeiro

66%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

14%

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

67%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

31%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

10%

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

70%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

33%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

48%

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.93 + Cruzeiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.12

Cruzeiro attack 0.96 + Sport Recife defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sport Recife scores more

34%

level

28%

Cruzeiro scores more

38%

Cruzeiro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Matheus Pereira

Cruzeiro · M

9.9

Match Events

8'

Igor CariusOwn goal

18'

Kaio Jorge↳ Matheus Pereira

45'

Matheus Pereira↳ Kaio Jorge

46'

R. Atencio← Carlos Alberto

46'

Hereda← Matheus Alexandre

53'

Matheus Pereira

62'

Gabriel Barbosa← Kaio Jorge

62'

William Furtado← Christian

69'

Ze Lucas← Du Queiroz

69'

Romarinho← Chrystian Barletta

75'

Dalbert← Igor Carius

75'

Walace← Eduardo

75'

L. Diaz← Matheus Pereira

75'

Jonathan Jesus← L. Villalba

87'

Dalbert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportCruzeiro

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots17

1.08Expected Goals (xG)1.38

7Corners4

11Fouls5

Shots

11Total Shots17

4On Target6

7Off Target9

0Blocked2

6Inside Box9

5Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

401Total Passes506

328Accurate Passes430

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

1.37Goals Prevented1.37

Discipline

11Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2