Cruzeiro 1–1 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cruzeiro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sport Recife

Gabriel Barbosa 59'

Derik Lacerda 41'

10/5/2025

Serie A · Round 27Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Cruzeiro53%

×Draw25%

Sport Recife22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CruzeiroExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.92

Cruzeiro

1.58

Sport Recife

0.92

Cruzeiro creates 72% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 16 away

1.47

creates per match

1.01

0.82

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Cruzeiro

1.47

Sport Recife

1.01

allows per match

Cruzeiro

0.82

Sport Recife

1.69

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

-0.51scores less than expected

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.22scores more

Sport Recife-0.51scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw

78%

Cruzeiro or Sport Recife

75%

Draw or Sport Recife

47%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

28%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

79%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

47%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

21%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

60%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

23%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

71%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 42 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.47 + Sport Recife defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sport Recife attack 1.01 + Cruzeiro defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cruzeiro scores more

53%

level

25%

Sport Recife scores more

22%

Cruzeiro at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Matheus Pereira

Cruzeiro · M

8.6

Match Events

16'

Christian← Matheus Henrique

21'

Hyoran

26'

Keny Arroyo

33'

Aderlan

41'

Derik Lacerda↳ Matheusinho

46'

Igor Carius← Romarinho

55'

L. Sinisterra← Jonathan Jesus

55'

Joao Marcelo← Lucas Silva

59'

Gabriel Barbosa↳ Matheus Pereira

66'

R. Atencio← Hyoran

79'

Marquinhos← Kaua Moraes

79'

Ryan Guilherme←

86'

Pedro Augusto← Ze Lucas

86'

Chrystian Barletta← Matheusinho

90+8'

Lucas Kal← C. Rivera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzeiroSport

Overview

62%Possession38%

27Total Shots17

1.74Expected Goals (xG)2.29

10Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

27Total Shots17

7On Target5

12Off Target7

8Blocked5

14Inside Box11

13Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

507Total Passes322

451Accurate Passes263

89%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

1.06Goals Prevented1.06

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1