Sport Recife 3–1 Cruzeiro: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sport Recife

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cruzeiro

F. Labandeira 78'

Vágner Love 40'

Chico 21'

Bruno Rodrigues 56'

10/9/2022

Serie B · Round 34Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sport Recife48%

×Draw27%

Cruzeiro25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.92

Sport Recife

1.38

Cruzeiro

0.92

Sport Recife creates 50% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 52 away

1.80

creates per match

1.04

0.80

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.80

Cruzeiro

1.04

allows per match

Sport Recife

0.80

Cruzeiro

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Cruzeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

75%

Sport Recife or Cruzeiro

73%

Draw or Cruzeiro

52%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

23%

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

75%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

40%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

16%

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

60%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

23%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

65%

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 71 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.80 + Cruzeiro defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cruzeiro attack 1.04 + Sport Recife defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sport Recife scores more

48%

level

27%

Cruzeiro scores more

25%

Sport Recife at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

Chico

Sport Recife · D

8.3

Match Events

21'

Chico

32'

Daniel← Rafael Silva

36'

Jajá← Wesley Gasolina

40'

Vágner Love↳ L. Hernández

56'

Bruno Rodrigues

58'

Lucas Hernández

66'

Wanderson← L. Hernández

66'

Giovanni← Denner

67'

Edu← Lincoln

67'

Matheus Xavier← Pedro Castro

67'

Kaiki← Marquinhos Cipriano

78'

F. Labandeira

81'

Fabio Alemão← F. Labandeira

81'

J. Parraguez← Vágner Love

88'

Willian Oliveira← Ronaldo

90+1'

Lucas Oliveira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportCruzeiro

Overview

32%Possession68%

12Total Shots15

5Corners10

8Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots15

6On Target2

6Off Target6

0Blocked7

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box8

Passing

32%Possession68%

238Total Passes506

164Accurate Passes431

69%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1