Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2024

Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
N. Lujan 45'
A. Cantero 90'
Paolo Guerrero 35' (pen)
1/30/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sport Huancayo38%
×Draw27%
Alianza Lima35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Huancayo
1.30
Alianza Lima
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sport Huancayo
1.74
Alianza Lima
1.20

allows per match

Sport Huancayo
1.26
Alianza Lima
0.87

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par
Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw
65%
Sport Huancayo or Alianza Lima
73%
Draw or Alianza Lima
62%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
17%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
73%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
37%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
14%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
71%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
35%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
52%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.74 + Alianza Lima defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.30

Alianza Lima attack 1.20 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more
38%
level
27%
Alianza Lima scores more
35%

Sport Huancayo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Hugo Ángeles
35'
Paolo GuerreroPenalty
42'
Cristian Carbajal
45'
N. Lujan↳ J. J. Canela Torres
60'
A. Burlamaqui← F. Gaibor
60'
L. Ramos← E. Castillo
61'
A. Cantero← G. Gentile
62'
Y. Mena← F. Caballero
63'
J. Sanguinetti← D. Carabano
64'
Paolo Guerrero
66'
Mateo Antoni
68'
R. Campodonico← J. J. Canela Torres
71'
K. Quevedo← Paolo Guerrero
76'
D. Montenegro← C. Carbajal
78'
P. Magallanes← N. Lujan
90'
Edu Villar
90'
A. Cantero

Statistics

SportAlianza
Overview
0Total Shots0
0Fouls0
Shots
0Total Shots0
0On Target0
0Off Target0
0Blocked0
0Inside Box0
0Outside Box0
Discipline
0Fouls0

Primera División: Sport Huancayo 1–2 Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima beat Sport Huancayo 2-1 in Primera División on January 30, 2026.

Goals: Paolo Guerrero (35' pen), N. Lujan (45'), A. Cantero (90').

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.