Sport Huancayo 1–2 Alianza Lima: Result & Stats

Sport Huancayo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Alianza Lima

D. Carabano 90'

H. Barcos 90'

Paolo Guerrero 23'

10/20/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sport Huancayo38%

×Draw27%

Alianza Lima35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.23

Sport Huancayo

1.30

Alianza Lima

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 45 away

1.74

creates per match

1.20

1.26

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.74

Alianza Lima

1.20

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.26

Alianza Lima

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

65%

Sport Huancayo or Alianza Lima

73%

Draw or Alianza Lima

62%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

17%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

73%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

37%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

14%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

71%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

35%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

52%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.74 + Alianza Lima defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.30

Alianza Lima attack 1.20 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

38%

level

27%

Alianza Lima scores more

35%

Sport Huancayo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

D. Carabano

Sport Huancayo · M

7.7

Match Events

-5'

11'

16'

20'

23'

32'

46'

46'

F. Gaibor← A. Burlamaqui

59'

M. de Jesus← E. Fernandez

65'

G. Chavez← E. Castillo

67'

M. Carranza← E. Villar

67'

J. Posito← R. Huaccha

71'

H. Barcos← Paolo Guerrero

72'

S. Pena← P. Ceppelini

74'

Pablo CeppeliniCard upgrade

78'

S. Barboza← J. Madrid

85'

P. Aquino← J. Castillo

90'

H. Barcos↳ S. Pena

90'

D. Carabano↳ S. Barboza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportAlianza

Overview

59%Possession41%

21Total Shots11

7Corners3

8Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots11

6On Target7

12Off Target3

3Blocked1

8Inside Box9

13Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

404Total Passes295

337Accurate Passes221

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0