Alianza Lima 2–1 Sport Huancayo: Result & Stats

Alianza Lima

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sport Huancayo

P. Guerrero 21', 1'

C. Ross 30'

10/23/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Alianza Lima67%

×Draw20%

Sport Huancayo13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchSport Huancayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.75

Alianza Lima

2.00

Sport Huancayo

0.75

Alianza Lima creates 167% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

2.09

creates per match

0.86

0.64

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Alianza Lima

2.09

Sport Huancayo

0.86

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.64

Sport Huancayo

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Sport Huancayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

87%

Alianza Lima or Sport Huancayo

80%

Draw or Sport Huancayo

33%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

41%

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

86%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

59%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

32%

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

53%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

17%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

84%

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.91 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 2.09 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sport Huancayo attack 0.86 + Alianza Lima defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

67%

level

20%

Sport Huancayo scores more

13%

Alianza Lima at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

P. Guerrero

Alianza Lima · F

8.7

Match Events

1'

P. Guerrero↳ C. Cabellos

6'

J. Deza

21'

P. Guerrero↳ Pablo Sabbag

30'

C. Ross↳ M. Lliuya

46'

J. Castillo← C. Cabellos

46'

K. Quevedo← F. Zanelatto

58'

E. Villar

59'

Otavio Gut

62'

J. D´Arrigo← Pablo Sabbag

62'

J. Núñez← J. Deza

68'

J. Castillo

82'

M. Succar← A. Arregui

83'

M. Huamán← E. Noriega

86'

R. Salcedo← E. Villar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaSport

Overview

51%Possession49%

18Total Shots14

6Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots14

7On Target4

9Off Target7

2Blocked3

10Inside Box4

8Outside Box10

Passing

51%Possession49%

419Total Passes419

352Accurate Passes358

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2