Sport Boys 1–0 Atletico Grau: Result & Stats

Sport Boys

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Grau

L. Urruti 59'

2/14/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sport Boys54%

×Draw24%

Atletico Grau22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport BoysExpected goals in this matchAtletico Grau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.97

Sport Boys

1.68

Atletico Grau

0.97

Sport Boys creates 73% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.65

creates per match

0.84

1.09

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sport Boys

1.65

Atletico Grau

0.84

allows per match

Sport Boys

1.09

Atletico Grau

1.71

-0.90scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Sport Boys-0.90scores less

Atletico Grau+0.07on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Atletico Grau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw

78%

Sport Boys or Atletico Grau

76%

Draw or Atletico Grau

46%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+

29%

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals

81%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

50%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

24%

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

62%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

25%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

71%

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.71 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.65 + Atletico Grau defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68

Atletico Grau attack 0.84 + Sport Boys defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sport Boys scores more

54%

level

24%

Atletico Grau scores more

22%

Sport Boys at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

55

G. Dulanto

Sport Boys · D

7.9

Match Events

31'

R. Alfani← H. Riojas

37'

Emiliano Franco

46'

M. Llontop← S. Aranda

47'

Renzo Alfani

59'

L. Urruti↳ L. Nequecaur

61'

A. de la Cruz← E. Franco

68'

G. E. Alfaro Martinez← E. Rodas

68'

S. Torres← D. Barreto

68'

71'

72'

76'

77'

R. Ruidiaz← R. Guarderas

79'

L. Solis← J. Alarcon

79'

R. Diaz← L. Urruti

90+4'

Leonel Solís

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportAtletico

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots7

7Corners2

12Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots7

4On Target0

8Off Target6

1Blocked1

7Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

292Total Passes468

218Accurate Passes390

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0