Sport Boys vs Atletico Grau — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 8+ matches
Sport Boys54%
Atletico Grau22%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sport Boys creates 73% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sport Boys ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sport Boys at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches
Atletico Grau away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.71 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sport Boys attack 1.65 + Atletico Grau defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68
Atletico Grau attack 0.84 + Sport Boys defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Sport Boys at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Alianza Lima
Cusco
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos
Sport HuancayoSport BoysAtletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
UTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Sport Boys host Atletico Grau on Tuesday, 23 September 2025 at 00:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Primera División: Sport Boys 1–1 Atletico Grau
Sport Boys and Atletico Grau drew 1-1 in Primera División on September 23, 2025.
Goals: J. Garro (15'), C. Lopez (35').
Atletico Grau controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 12.
The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau in Callao.