Atletico Grau 3–3 Sport Boys: Result & Stats

Atletico Grau

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Sport Boys

R. Ruidiaz 90' (pen), 83' (pen)

R. Vilca 27'

A. Hohberg 84', 42' (pen)

C. H. Da 68'

4/27/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Atletico Grau51%

×Draw25%

Sport Boys25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GrauExpected goals in this matchSport Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.08

Atletico Grau

1.65

Sport Boys

1.08

Atletico Grau creates 53% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.46

creates per match

0.78

1.37

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Atletico Grau

1.46

Sport Boys

0.78

allows per match

Atletico Grau

1.37

Sport Boys

1.84

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Atletico Grau-0.46scores less

Sport Boys+0.04on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Sport Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw

75%

Atletico Grau or Sport Boys

75%

Draw or Sport Boys

49%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

27%

Sport Boys wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

81%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

49%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

23%

Sport Boys 1+ goals

66%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

29%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

67%

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.37 · 8 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.46 + Sport Boys defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sport Boys attack 0.78 + Atletico Grau defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Grau scores more

51%

level

25%

Sport Boys scores more

25%

Atletico Grau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Hohberg

Sport Boys · M

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Rodrigo Colombo

27'

R. Vilca↳ J. Garro

39'

Daniel Franco

42'

A. HohbergPenalty

44'

Rodrigo Tapia

50'

Juan Gonzáles

56'

N. Bandiera← F. Cavagna

58'

G. Rodriguez← J. Gonzales

68'

C. H. Da↳ A. Hohberg

74'

T. Sandoval← J. Bolivar

74'

B. Villalta← R. Colombo

74'

A. Huaman← C. Lopez

80'

Alejandro Altuna

83'

R. RuidiazPenalty

84'

A. Hohberg↳ C. Carbajal

86'

90+13'

90+7'

90+3'

90+6'

90'

90'

R. RuidiazPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoSport

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots8

4Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target3

3Off Target4

5Blocked1

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

334Total Passes235

249Accurate Passes152

75%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0