Sport Boys 4–2 Alianza Universidad: Result & Stats

Sport Boys

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Alianza Universidad

A. Altuna 86'

C. Lopez 48'

A. Hohberg 18'

L. Nequecaur 3'

Otavio Gut 58'

G. Pereira 46'

5/4/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sport Boys56%

×Draw24%

Alianza Universidad20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport BoysExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.91

Sport Boys

1.71

Alianza Universidad

0.91

Sport Boys creates 88% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.65

creates per match

0.72

1.09

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Sport Boys

1.65

Alianza Universidad

0.72

allows per match

Sport Boys

1.09

Alianza Universidad

1.78

-0.90scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Sport Boys-0.90scores less

Alianza Universidad-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw

80%

Sport Boys or Alianza Universidad

76%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

44%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+

31%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals

82%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

51%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

24%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

60%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

23%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

74%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.65 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Alianza Universidad attack 0.72 + Sport Boys defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sport Boys scores more

56%

level

24%

Alianza Universidad scores more

20%

Sport Boys at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Nequecaur

Sport Boys · F

8.9

Match Events

3'

L. Nequecaur↳ C. Lopez

18'

A. Hohberg

36'

Hernan Da Campo

40'

Jorginho SernaquéPenalty cancelled

46'

E. O. Vasquez Ortega← A. Aoki

46'

G. Pereira← J. Sernaque

46'

G. Pereira

48'

C. Lopez↳ L. Nequecaur

58'

Otavio Gut↳ R. Campodonico

60'

68'

70'

74'

74'

A. Perleche← G. Iraola

74'

M. Lliuya← E. Oliva

80'

D. Alvarado← O. Mora

80'

J. Gonzales← L. Urruti

85'

G. Rodriguez← L. Nequecaur

86'

A. Altuna

87'

C. Ramos← F. E. Espinoza Vega

88'

Gilmar Rodríguez

90+1'

Alejandro Hohberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportAlianza

Overview

28%Possession72%

13Total Shots14

2Corners5

16Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots14

8On Target4

4Off Target3

1Blocked7

8Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

28%Possession72%

185Total Passes479

142Accurate Passes437

77%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1