Alianza Universidad 1–0 Sport Boys: Result & Stats

Alianza Universidad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Boys

E. Chávez 40'

4/24/2021

Primera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Universidad51%

×Draw26%

Sport Boys23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchSport Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.93

Alianza Universidad

1.52

Sport Boys

0.93

Alianza Universidad creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

0.78

1.07

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

1.20

Sport Boys

0.78

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

1.07

Sport Boys

1.84

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad-0.20scores less

Sport Boys+0.04on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Sport Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

77%

Alianza Universidad or Sport Boys

74%

Draw or Sport Boys

49%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

26%

Sport Boys wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

78%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

45%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

20%

Sport Boys 1+ goals

61%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

24%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

69%

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 5 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 1.20 + Sport Boys defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sport Boys attack 0.78 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

51%

level

26%

Sport Boys scores more

23%

Alianza Universidad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

D. Morales

Alianza Universidad · G

8.3

Match Events

24'

31'

39'

40'

49'

Jeremy Martin Rostaing

54'

D. Ramírez← L. Ramírez

62'

63'

68'

68'

70'

J. Cámara← D. Ismodes

71'

Claudio Torrejón

73'

J. Durán← D. Manicero

73'

R. Espinoza← C. Neumann

78'

J. Aguilar← J. Villamarín

83'

Jose Bolivar

86'

J. Landauri← S. Cavero

89'

J. Chávez← C. Torrejón

89'

A. Valencia← P. Ratto

90+5'

Jose Bolivar

90+5'

Jose Bolivar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaSport

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots17

1Corners6

19Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots17

3On Target7

5Off Target6

0Blocked4

3Inside Box10

5Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

307Total Passes410

221Accurate Passes328

72%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls17

4Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards1

1Offsides1