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Alianza Universidad vs Sport Boys — Primera División 2026

Alianza Universidad
Alianza Universidad
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sport Boys
Sport Boys
Y. Mena 90' (pen)
R. Salazar 71' (OG)
J. Alarcon 90' (pen)
C. Lopez 16'
L. Urruti 14'
9/26/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Heraclio Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Universidad51%
×Draw26%
Sport Boys23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Universidad
1.52
Sport Boys
0.93

Alianza Universidad creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Alianza Universidad
1.20
Sport Boys
0.78

allows per match

Alianza Universidad
1.07
Sport Boys
1.84

finishing

Alianza Universidad-0.20scores less
Sport Boys+0.04on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Sport Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw
77%
Alianza Universidad or Sport Boys
74%
Draw or Sport Boys
49%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+
26%
Sport Boys wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals
78%
Alianza Universidad 2+ goals
45%
Alianza Universidad 3+ goals
20%
Sport Boys 1+ goals
61%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
24%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)
69%
Sport Boys (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 5 matches

Sport Boys away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 1.20 + Sport Boys defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sport Boys attack 0.78 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more
51%
level
26%
Sport Boys scores more
23%

Alianza Universidad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
L. UrrutiSport BoysSport Boys · F
8.5

Match Events

-5'
Diego Saffadi
14'
L. Urruti↳ F. Martinez
15'
Fidel Martínez
16'
C. Lopez↳ C. Carbajal
38'
Emilio Saba
42'
Otávio Gut
46'
E. Aubert← E. O. Vasquez Ortega
65'
N. Ramirez← J. Escobar
66'
J. Mendieta← A. Ampuero
66'
J. Alarcon← F. Martinez
68'
Matias Almiron
70'
R. Salazar← E. Saba
71'
R. SalazarOwn goal
78'
Luis Urruti
85'
Jeremy CanelaPenalty cancelled
90+10'
Edson Aubert
90+4'
Rick CampodonicoPenalty confirmed
90+16'
Jostin Alarcón
90+1'
D. Alvarado← C. Lopez
90'
Y. MenaPenalty
90'
J. AlarconPenalty

Possession

78%Alianza

Shots

23Alianza

Pass accuracy

59%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaSport
Overview
78%Possession22%
23Total Shots11
9Corners1
9Fouls12
Shots
23Total Shots11
4On Target4
9Off Target6
10Blocked1
14Inside Box5
9Outside Box6
Passing
78%Possession22%
542Total Passes160
477Accurate Passes96
88%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls12
3Yellow Cards5
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Alianza Universidad vs Sport Boys

Sport Boys beat Alianza Universidad 3-2 in Primera División on September 26, 2025.

Goals: L. Urruti (14'), C. Lopez (16'), R. Salazar (71' o.g.), Y. Mena (90' pen), J. Alarcon (90' pen).

Alianza Universidad controlled possession (78%) and registered 23 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Heraclio Tapia in Huanuco.