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Spokane Velocity vs Richmond Kickers — USL League One 2026

Spokane Velocity
Spokane Velocity
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers
4/12/2026USL League OneUSL League One · Group StageOne Spokane Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Spokane Velocity47%
×Draw25%
Richmond Kickers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spokane Velocity
1.56
Richmond Kickers
1.13

Spokane Velocity creates 38% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 104 away

creates per match

Spokane Velocity
1.49
Richmond Kickers
1.11

allows per match

Spokane Velocity
1.14
Richmond Kickers
1.63

finishing

Spokane Velocity+0.00on par
Richmond Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spokane Velocity ↓

Richmond Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Spokane Velocity or draw
72%
Spokane Velocity or Richmond Kickers
75%
Draw or Richmond Kickers
53%

Winning margin

Spokane Velocity wins by 2+
24%
Richmond Kickers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spokane Velocity 1+ goals
79%
Spokane Velocity 2+ goals
46%
Spokane Velocity 3+ goals
21%
Richmond Kickers 1+ goals
68%
Richmond Kickers 2+ goals
31%
Richmond Kickers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Spokane Velocity (draw refunded)
63%
Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spokane Velocity at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Richmond Kickers away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.63 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spokane Velocity attack 1.49 + Richmond Kickers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Richmond Kickers attack 1.11 + Spokane Velocity defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spokane Velocity scores more
47%
level
25%
Richmond Kickers scores more
28%

Spokane Velocity at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spokane Velocity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spokane Velocity vs Richmond Kickers

Spokane Velocity beat Richmond Kickers 3-1 in USL League One on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at One Spokane Stadium.