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Richmond Kickers vs Spokane Velocity — USL League One 2026

Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spokane Velocity
Spokane Velocity
6/21/2025USL League OneUSL League One · Round 8City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Richmond Kickers45%
×Draw26%
Spokane Velocity30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richmond Kickers
1.50
Spokane Velocity
1.17

Richmond Kickers creates 28% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

creates per match

Richmond Kickers
1.44
Spokane Velocity
1.03

allows per match

Richmond Kickers
1.31
Spokane Velocity
1.56

finishing

Richmond Kickers+0.00on par
Spokane Velocity+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richmond Kickers ↓

Spokane Velocity →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Richmond Kickers or draw
70%
Richmond Kickers or Spokane Velocity
74%
Draw or Spokane Velocity
55%

Winning margin

Richmond Kickers wins by 2+
22%
Spokane Velocity wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Richmond Kickers 1+ goals
78%
Richmond Kickers 2+ goals
44%
Richmond Kickers 3+ goals
19%
Spokane Velocity 1+ goals
69%
Spokane Velocity 2+ goals
33%
Spokane Velocity 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)
60%
Spokane Velocity (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richmond Kickers at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 100 matches

Spokane Velocity away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richmond Kickers attack 1.44 + Spokane Velocity defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Spokane Velocity attack 1.03 + Richmond Kickers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Richmond Kickers scores more
45%
level
26%
Spokane Velocity scores more
30%

Richmond Kickers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Richmond Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Richmond Kickers 0–1 Spokane Velocity

Spokane Velocity beat Richmond Kickers 1-0 in USL League One on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at City Stadium.