Richmond Kickers 3–2 Spokane Velocity

Richmond Kickers

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Spokane Velocity

8/29/2024

USL League One Cup · Group Stage - 5City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Richmond Kickers37%

×Draw24%

Spokane Velocity39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Richmond KickersExpected goals in this matchSpokane Velocity

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.51

Richmond Kickers

1.47

Spokane Velocity

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

0.57

creates per match

0.88

2.14

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Richmond Kickers

0.57

Spokane Velocity

0.88

allows per match

Richmond Kickers

2.14

Spokane Velocity

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Richmond Kickers+0.00on par

Spokane Velocity+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richmond Kickers ↓

Spokane Velocity →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Richmond Kickers or draw

61%

Richmond Kickers or Spokane Velocity

76%

Draw or Spokane Velocity

63%

Winning margin

Richmond Kickers wins by 2+

17%

Spokane Velocity wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Richmond Kickers 1+ goals

77%

Richmond Kickers 2+ goals

43%

Richmond Kickers 3+ goals

18%

Spokane Velocity 1+ goals

78%

Spokane Velocity 2+ goals

44%

Spokane Velocity 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)

49%

Spokane Velocity (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richmond Kickers at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Spokane Velocity away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richmond Kickers attack 0.57 + Spokane Velocity defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Spokane Velocity attack 0.88 + Richmond Kickers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Richmond Kickers scores more

37%

level

24%

Spokane Velocity scores more

39%

Spokane Velocity at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spokane Velocity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff