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Spokane Velocity vs Northern Colorado — USL League One Cup 2024

Spokane Velocity
Spokane Velocity
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
8/14/2024USL League One CupUSL League One Cup · Group Stage - 5One Spokane Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spokane Velocity18%
×Draw20%
Northern Colorado62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spokane Velocity
1.08
Northern Colorado
2.17

Northern Colorado creates 101% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Spokane Velocity
1.50
Northern Colorado
3.00

allows per match

Spokane Velocity
1.33
Northern Colorado
0.67

finishing

Spokane Velocity+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spokane Velocity ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Spokane Velocity or draw
38%
Spokane Velocity or Northern Colorado
80%
Draw or Northern Colorado
82%

Winning margin

Spokane Velocity wins by 2+
7%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Spokane Velocity 1+ goals
66%
Spokane Velocity 2+ goals
29%
Spokane Velocity 3+ goals
10%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
89%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
64%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Spokane Velocity (draw refunded)
23%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spokane Velocity at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spokane Velocity attack 1.50 + Northern Colorado defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Northern Colorado attack 3.00 + Spokane Velocity defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Spokane Velocity scores more
18%
level
20%
Northern Colorado scores more
62%

Northern Colorado at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One Cup: Spokane Velocity 1–3 Northern Colorado

Northern Colorado beat Spokane Velocity 3-1 in USL League One Cup on August 14, 2024.

The match was played at One Spokane Stadium in Spokane, Washington.